New poll indicates Spanberger, Earle-Sears in tight Virginia governor’s race

Early polling suggests Republican Winsome Earle-Sears doing better with male voters and white voters compared with Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who did better among women.

A new poll suggests the race to become Virginia’s next governor this fall is currently a competitive one. 

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey on Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race found that 42% of voters support Democrat former Representative Abigail Spanberger and 41% support Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. 

The survey released today found four percent of voters support someone else to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited by Virginia’s constitution, and 13% are undecided. 

“The poll shows that, once again, purple state Virginia, is in for a pretty compelling election season,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in an interview with The Dogwood.

The survey found that Earle-Sears is doing better with male voters and white voters compared with Spanberger, who did better among women, older voters, and younger voters.

Virginia will elect a new governor – along with a new lieutenant governor and attorney general –  in November, but before that, Democrats and Republicans will nominate their candidates in June. 

Spanberger and Earle-Sears are the only major party candidates who have officially announced their campaigns for governor. Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott is mulling a run, according to a December report from Punchbowl News, but it’s not clear how seriously he’s considering it and if it’s really just a way of pulling Spanberger, a moderate, further to the left.

In this Sept. 1, 2021 file photo, Winsome Earle-Sears addresses the Virginia FREE Leadership Luncheon in McLean, Va. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Former Republican Representative Denver Riggleman is also exploring an independent run for governor, according to The Washington Post. 

The status of the economy will likely play a big factor in how voters cast their ballots in November, Farnsworth said. If the economy is doing well, then voters are more likely to continue supporting the incumbent Republican party. But if the economy takes a negative turn, voters are more likely to want a change and give Democrats their support. 

Still, the state of the economy isn’t necessarily under the control of the state government, rather it’s national economic factors that will play a big role in Virginia’s race for governor, Farnsworth said. Trump’s proposal to dramatically reduce the federal government could have a big impact on Virginia’s economy and hurt the Republican candidate for governor, Farnsworth said. 

The Emerson poll found Virginia voters split 47%-47% on their approval and disapproval of Trump, who takes office this month. Virginia rejected Trump last fall but by a smaller margin than they did in the 2016 election. 

“A lot is going to depend on what Trump does in office,” Farnsworth said. 

One factor that could help Spanberger is that Virginia voters tend to vote against the party that most recently won the White House, said Marty Cohen, a political science professor at James Madison University. Also, Virginia being a blue state bodes well for Spanberger, Cohen said. 

“I would expect Spanberger to develop a larger lead in the spring and summer,” Cohen said. “I think she will be seen as more moderate than Sears which also should help.”