A federal appeals court panel heard arguments Tuesday on whether an earlier decision to strike down the entire Affordable Care Act from a Texas judge should stand. It is the latest step in the judicial saga of the ACA, which has been under legal attack since it passed in 2010.

Based on yesterday’s arguments, Axios reports that it seemed likely the court could strike down the requirement that everyone must have health insurance, and potentially the entire law. If that happens, it’s likely the case could wind up at the Supreme Court later this year, or in early 2020.

This case was originally filed by a group of Republican governors and attorneys general in February 2018. Ordinarily the federal government would defend its laws, but the Trump administration said earlier this year that it agreed with the Texas judge’s ruling that the ACA’s health insurance requirement was unconstitutional, and as a result the entire law must be repealed. 

With the future of the law in jeopardy, we decided to take a look at what repeal of the ACA would mean for Virginia.

If the ACA were repealed…

  • 642,000 Virginians could lose their health care coverage, which would nearly double the number of uninsured people under age 65 in the state.

  • Nearly 300,000 Virginians who’ve enrolled in the state’s Medicaid expansion could lose their coverage.

  • 3.4 million Virginians, including over 444,000 children, with pre-existing conditions will lose protections and could be disqualified from buying a health insurance policy or see their premiums surge.

  • 59,000 young Virginians under the age of 26 could lose their ability to remain on their parents’ insurance.

  • Virginians over the age of 50 could see their premiums increase by $3,431.

  • 3.9 million Virginians would once again have to pay for preventative care, such as flu shots, cancer screenings and contraception.

  • Roughly 3 million Virginians could see limits on how much medical care insurance will cover reinstated.

  • Approximately 290,000 Virginians would pay more for coverage due to the loss of health insurance affordability tax credits.

  • Nearly 110,000 Virginia seniors could see their prescription drug costs increase.

  • Virginia would see the loss of over 10,000 healthcare-related jobs.