How candidates in Virginia's tightest races spent their final campaign days
By Matt Blair
November 1, 2019

Campaign donation figures and voter data from VPAP

HD-66: Colonial Heights and Chesterfield County

Sheila Bynum-Coleman (D) Vs. Kirk Cox (R)

How Close is it?

If Virginia is a bellwether for the country, then the race in House District 66 may be the bellwether for the state. Because the Supreme Court ruled the House Speaker ’s district was racially gerrymandered, Kirk Cox faces his first competitive race since winning his seat in 1989. The current zone is far less Republican than it had been under the 2011 map, and it encompasses nearly twice as many African American voters. Those changes could bode well for Sheila Bynum-Coleman as she seeks to become the first woman and black person elected to the House of Delegates in the 66th. Cox knows what’s at stake, evidenced by his decision to take the debate stage in October for the first time in decades. So do donors. Collectively, the candidates have raised over $3 million in this election cycle, eclipsed only by the race in the 40th House District between Dan Helmer (D) and Tim Hugo (R).

Updates from this week

Mother Jones published an in-depth, behind-the-scenes look at the campaign to defeat the most powerful Republican in Virginia on Thursday.

Bynum-Coleman raised $133,064 this week compared to Cox’s $45,383.

On Twitter, Cox said his campaign has been calling voters and sending thousands of “get out the vote” postcards. 

Bynum-Coleman is maintaining her canvassing sprint through Election Day. She previously said she knocks on a thousand doors per week. Volunteers from organizations like Emily’s List, VARatifyERA, and The Human Rights Campaign are out knocking on doors for her, too.

HD-28: Stafford County and Fredericksburg City

Joshua Cole (D) Vs. Paul Milde (R)

How close is it?

In his first run for the seat, in 2017, Cole lost to Republican Bob Thomas by less than 100 votes. Though district voters backed Trump over Clinton in 2016, the Democratic candidate carried the district in the 2017 gubernatorial elections and 2018 U.S. Senate race. A redistricted map is in play for 2019, giving Republicans a slight advantage over the old map (+2.5 points). However, Cole has effectively been campaigning for four years and has raised over 30% more cash than Milde.

Updates from this week:

Cole raise $68,256 to Milde’s $61,000. 

Cole dressed up as a Gryffindor student for Halloween. Or was it Dean Thomas?

Friday, Democratic heavyweights including Sen. Tim Kaine and former Gov. Terry McAuliffe will join Cole for a get out the vote rally in Stafford.

Meanwhile, Milde pulled in a few last-minute endorsements from local politicians like Stafford Treasurer Laura Rudy and former Fredericksburg City Mayor Thomas Tomczak.

HD-83 Virginia Beach City and Norfolk City

Nancy Guy (D) Vs. Chris Stolle (R)

How close is it?

Chris Stolle is seeking his fifth term in the House. In 2017, he handily beat Democratic challenger David Rose-Carmack by nearly 14 points. However, as a result of redistricting, the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in HD-83 narrowed by 12.4 points in favor of the Democrats, who have had success here in recent gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. This race is considered a toss-up.

Updates from this week:

The Stolle campaign reported $139,000 in donations over the last week, which would have been remarkable had Guy not out-raised every House of Delegates candidate with $404,650 in contributions since Oct. 24.

Guy was out canvassing with Democratic candidates Jennifer Carroll Foy and Cheryl Turpin this week. She also got a shoutout on Twitter from actor Julia Louis Dreyfus for her support of the Equal Rights Amendment.

And Stolle attended a birthday party for Ocean View’s oldest living resident, Emma Ellis, who turned 107 on Sunday.

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