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2025 Virginia Voter's Guide

Virginians will see health insurance premiums surge if ACA subsidies expire

By Michael O'Connor

October 7, 2025

Republicans in Washington have refused to include an extension of important health care tax credits in a federal spending bill to re-open the government.

Virginia’s Democratic senators are drawing attention to the risks people face if Republicans don’t agree to extend critical tax credits that keep health care access within reach for millions of Americans. 

Virginia’s State Corporation Commission (SCC) published figures showing how much monthly premiums would go up for people enrolled in Affordable Care Act health care plans if Republicans let enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of the year. The SCC estimates show how the loss of these tax credits would put a serious strain on the budgets of households enrolled in ACA plans.  

The biggest burden identified by the SCC would be felt in the western part of Virginia: the monthly premium for a couple in their 60s with an income of $84,700 in Roanoke County would go up by $1,076 if the ACA tax credits expire. 

Elsewhere around the state and on the income ladder, households will see premiums go up by hundreds of dollars per month. 

A couple in their 40s with two kids ages 10 and five making $96,450 in Virginia Beach or Fairfax County would see their monthly premium increase by $318. And a 45-year-old making $46,950 in Chesterfield or Henrico counties would see his or her monthly premium go up by $155. 

“It is baffling that anyone could look at these numbers and decide that the best course of action is to continue sitting idly by, but that’s the choice that Republicans in Congress continue to make every single passing day during this government shutdown,” said US Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner in a statement last week.

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Virginia Democrats have made preventing these premium increases a priority, while Republicans have come under attack for their unwillingness to protect Americans’ healthcare. Even MAGA-firebrand US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has criticized GOP leaders for not having a plan to address the costs of letting the healthcare subsidies expire. 

The SCC estimates that 47,000 Virginians would become uninsured once ACA enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of the year.

Republicans refused to extend these tax credits in their massive tax and spending legislation that slashed Medicaid and food stamps for the poor to help pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. The legislation has already been blamed for the closure of three rural clinics in Virginia, and state lawmakers are grappling with how to make up for the massive federal funding shortfalls

The tax credits have helped small business owners and their employees access health care they otherwise could not afford. Lester Johnson, an owner of Mama J’s restaurant in Richmond, said being able to access ACA plans with the help of the tax credits means he and his staff can access preventative care and make regular doctor’s visits. He said he’s worried about what would happen to his business and his employees if the tax credits went away. 

“Times are already tough,” Johnson said on a recent call with reporters. “We cannot afford to lose our health care.”

As they fight to protect Virginians’ healthcare, Democrats are also trying to bolster support for federal workers during the shutdown

The White House has reportedly floated the idea of not giving furloughed federal workers their back pay once the government re-opens. During government shutdowns, some federal workers work without pay or are furloughed, and then get their lost wages paid back when the government re-opens. 

But President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that, “there are some people that really don’t deserve to be taken care of, and we’ll take care of them in a different way.”

Virginia Democrats like US Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) rushed to remind Republicans  that federal employees are guaranteed back pay by law. Beyer noted that Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson’s website says that, ‘Under federal law, employees are entitled to back pay upon the government reopening.’ Beyer said it was “despicable” that Trump would scare federal employees and their families as a negotiating tactic. 

“Federal employees should know that these threats are hollow, and they will be paid when this shutdown ends, as the law requires,” Beyer said in a statement. 

  • Michael O'Connor

    Michael is an award-winning journalist who started covering Virginia news in 2013 with reporting stints at the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Virginia Business, and Richmond BizSense. A graduate of William & Mary and Northern Virginia Community College, he also covered financial news for S&P Global Market Intelligence.

CATEGORIES: HEALTHCARE

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